Brazil’s 2026 Election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in a Dead Heat, Runoff Likely

Brazil went to the polls on October 4 for a presidential election that pits incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. With polls showing a virtual tie and neither candidate expected to reach the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright, a runoff on October 25 appears almost certain.

A polarised choice

Lula, 80, of the Workers’ Party (PT), closed his campaign on Saturday with a large march through São Paulo, telling supporters the vote was a choice between “democracy and barbarism” and promising to “defeat the far right” Al Jazeera (Oct 4). He has also warned against foreign interference, explicitly calling out Washington for what he says is “meddling” in Brazil’s election (see also Al Jazeera (Oct 3)).

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, wrapped up his campaign with a motorcycle caravan through towns in São Paulo state, echoing his father’s signature campaign style, before a rally in Rio de Janeiro. He expressed confidence in a first-round victory Al Jazeera (Oct 4). Both candidates voted on Sunday, with Lula casting his ballot in São Bernardo do Campo and Bolsonaro voting in Rio Al Jazeera Video (Oct 4).

Background: Bolsonaro dynasty and corruption

The election is the second in a row that pits the PT against the Bolsonaro family. Former President Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after his 2022 loss to Lula. His conviction, alongside several military officers, has tested the resilience of Brazilian democracy Al Jazeera (Oct 3).

Complicating the race is the ongoing Banco Master corruption scandal, which has implicated figures across the political spectrum and injected uncertainty into an already volatile campaign Al Jazeera (Oct 4) (see also dossier notes).

What this means for internationals in the Netherlands

While Brazil’s election takes place thousands of kilometres away, its outcome matters for the estimated 60,000 Brazilians living in the Netherlands. A second Lula term would likely maintain current bilateral ties and trade flows, while a Bolsonaro victory could shift Brazil’s foreign policy closer to Washington and affect EU-Brazil cooperation on climate and trade. For those holding Dutch residence permits, political stability in Brazil also influences consular services and the ease of maintaining dual residency. The run-off on October 25 will be the next key date to watch.

Key issues: Democracy, crime, and the economy

The campaign has been dominated by concerns over crime and the economy. Lula points to falling deforestation rates and social programmes; Bolsonaro emphasises law-and-order rhetoric and tax cuts. US President Donald Trump has said he is watching the election “very closely”, a level of interest that Lula’s camp frames as a threat to Brazilian sovereignty Al Jazeera (Oct 4).

What happens next?

If no candidate wins an outright majority on October 4, the top two — almost certainly Lula and Bolsonaro — will face each other in a second round on October 25. The run-off campaign is expected to be even more intense, with both sides already laying the groundwork for allegations of fraud and foreign interference.