Brazil’s Lula fights for a fourth term as polls tighten and foreign tensions rise

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is campaigning for what is likely his last shot at the country’s highest office, facing a tight race against Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of his far-right predecessor. With the first round of voting set for 4 October, the election is being watched closely by international investors, trade partners and the large Brazilian diaspora — including the estimated 50,000 Brazilians living in the Netherlands.

For expats in the Netherlands, the outcome matters. Brazil is a major trading partner for the European Union, and Dutch companies have significant investments in Brazilian agribusiness, logistics and renewable energy. A shift in government could alter trade policy, currency stability and even the rules for dual nationals who hold Brazilian passports.

Lula’s last dance

At 80, Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. He launched his campaign in August at the May 1 Stadium in São Bernardo do Campo, the industrial city where he first rose to prominence as a union leader in the 1970s. The event was deliberately nostalgic: Lula walked on stage to the song Sirius, the Chicago Bulls’ pregame anthem from their last championship season — a wink to his own likely final run. Al Jazeera reported on the rally and the strategy behind it.

Polls show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro virtually tied. If no candidate wins an outright majority on 4 October, a runoff will follow later in the month.

Welfare boost before the vote

On 17 September, Lula’s government announced a 15 percent increase in the minimum monthly benefit of the Bolsa Família poverty-alleviation programme, raising it from 600 reais ($116) to 691 reais ($134). The adjustment matches inflation since the programme was last updated in March 2023. The government said the increase is fully covered by the current budget.

The move is seen as an attempt to shore up support among low-income voters, who form Lula’s core base. Bolsa Família reaches roughly 21 million families, and the extra cash could be decisive in a race that is too close to call.

UN warning against foreign interference

On 22 September, Lula used his address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York to warn against foreign meddling in Brazil’s election — a clear reference to tensions with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. Lula said “Brazilian democracy belongs to Brazilians” and that “Brazil does not belong in anyone’s backyard”.

Trump, who has openly sympathised with Flavio Bolsonaro, imposed two new rounds of tariffs on Brazilian goods in July. Lula has accused Washington of using economic pressure to influence the vote. Brazil has so far refrained from retaliatory tariffs, but the trade dispute adds another layer of uncertainty for Dutch companies exporting to or investing in Brazil.

What it means for expats in the Netherlands

If you hold Brazilian nationality — or have family in Brazil — the election could affect your ability to vote, remit money or travel. The Dutch government maintains a consulate in São Paulo and an embassy in Brasília, and any change in Brazil’s foreign policy could shift visa rules for Dutch citizens as well.

For now, the race remains wide open. Lula’s welfare increase may win back some voters, but concerns over crime and inflation persist. And with foreign interference becoming a campaign issue, the next few weeks will test whether Brazil’s democracy can withstand the pressure — both from within and abroad.