Brazil votes: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro face off in knife-edge election with global implications

Brazilians are voting today in one of the most closely watched presidential elections in years, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie. For internationals living in the Netherlands, the outcome matters more than you might think: Brazil is the Netherlands’ largest trading partner in Latin America, and the direction of its democracy could affect EU trade deals, climate policy, and migration patterns — all of which ripple into Dutch politics and daily life.

The race: too close to call

Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. local time across Brazil’s 26 states and the federal district, with some 160 million registered voters eligible to cast ballots. If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes — which most polls suggest is likely — a runoff will be held on October 25 between the top two contenders.

Lula, 80, of the Workers’ Party, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. He previously served as president from 2003 to 2010 and returned to office in 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro. His campaign has focused on expanding social programmes and reducing inequality. Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, of the Liberal Party, is the eldest son of the former far-right president, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for his role in a coup plot following his 2022 election loss.

Recent polls show the two candidates virtually tied. A Quaest poll released on September 22 gave Bolsonaro 42% support in a simulated runoff, against 41% for Lula. A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll had Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%. Both margins are within the polls’ error ranges, meaning the race is essentially deadlocked.

Corruption probe hangs over Bolsonaro campaign

Just weeks before election day, Brazil’s top court unsealed documents showing that Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça had opened a corruption investigation into Flavio Bolsonaro in July, at the request of federal police. The probe focuses on his ties to Daniel Vorcaro, the former head of failed lender Banco Master, who was arrested in March on charges of engineering one of the largest fraud scandals in Brazilian history — worth an estimated $2.3 billion and affecting some 800,000 bank clients.

According to court documents, investigators are examining whether Bolsonaro engaged in corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in connection with Vorcaro. Police said data from Vorcaro’s cellphone showed he transferred about $12 million to a US-based fund linked to Flavio’s brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro, in 2025. The money was reportedly intended for a film portraying the Bolsonaro family in a favourable light. Eduardo has denied the allegations, calling them “a lie” and claiming the transfers were meant to shield funds from interference by a Supreme Court justice.

Foreign interference allegations

On October 1, Brazil’s attorney general, Jorge Messias, called for a police investigation into allegations that the Trump administration directed funds to far-right civil groups opposing the Brazilian Supreme Court. The call came after The Guardian reported that the US planned to award $1 million to right-wing groups. Messias said foreign meddling “cannot be tolerated” and that the report represented “an important alert for Brazilian sovereignty”.

The allegations add to a tense atmosphere. Lula has warned against foreign interference throughout the campaign, while Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged close collaboration with US President Donald Trump, who has endorsed his candidacy. The US and Australia temporarily suspended diplomatic operations in Brazil ahead of the vote, citing security concerns.

What the outcome means for the Netherlands

For expats and internationals in the Netherlands, Brazil’s election is not just a distant political drama. The Netherlands is one of Brazil’s top foreign investors, particularly in agribusiness, logistics and renewable energy. A Lula victory would likely continue policies that prioritise Amazon protection and multilateral climate cooperation — aligning with EU and Dutch climate goals. A Bolsonaro win could signal a shift toward deregulation and closer ties with the US under Trump, potentially straining EU-Brazil trade relations.

Moreover, the stability of Brazilian democracy itself is a concern. Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election raised questions about the strength of democratic institutions. If Flavio Bolsonaro wins, his administration’s attitude toward the judiciary and electoral integrity will be closely watched — not least by the Netherlands, which has long championed democratic governance in its foreign policy.

What happens next

Voting closes at 5 p.m. local time (9 p.m. in the Netherlands). Results are expected to begin trickling in within hours, though a clear winner may not emerge until late Sunday night or early Monday. If neither candidate reaches 50%, the campaign enters a three-week sprint to the October 25 runoff.

For now, all eyes are on Brazil’s electronic voting machines — and on whether the world’s fourth-largest democracy can deliver a peaceful, credible result.

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Sources: Al Jazeera: Polls suggest tight presidential race, Al Jazeera: Flavio Bolsonaro faces corruption probe, Al Jazeera: Lula and Bolsonaro tied in latest polls, Al Jazeera: Brazilian government calls for probe into US funding, Al Jazeera: Everything you need to know, Al Jazeera: Lula and Bolsonaro draw thousands, NOS: 3/10 in Nieuwsuur, Al Jazeera: Brazil elections live, Al Jazeera: Brazil votes in deeply polarised election