Cabinet still hunting for budget deal as opposition demands billions in changes

Prime Minister Rob Jetten said Friday he wants a comprehensive agreement on the entire 2027 budget before Prinsjesdag — not piecemeal support from opposition parties picking and choosing which ministry budgets to back.

"Many things are interconnected, and that can quickly create conflicts," Jetten told reporters. The minority cabinet, formed by D66, VVD, and CDA, has no majority in either chamber of parliament and depends entirely on opposition votes to pass the Tax Plan and budget.

With just over a week until the draft budget must reach the Raad van State (Council of State) for advisory review, Finance Minister Eelco Heinen said he has "confidence" a broad deal can be reached. "We're in the final phase," he said Friday morning. "I have the feeling we're getting closer and parties don't differ all that much from each other."

What does this mean for you?

If no agreement is reached, the government could fall or be forced to pass individual budgets with shifting coalitions — creating unpredictability around everything from housing subsidies (toeslagen) to public transport investment. A collapse would likely trigger early elections, delaying decisions on residence permit processing backlogs, student finance reforms, and infrastructure projects already years behind schedule.

The opposition's wish lists reportedly total billions in changes. Left-wing alliance PRO, led by Jesse Klaver, is demanding the cabinet scrap planned cuts to social security and welfare, funded through higher taxes on millionaires and corporate profits. Right-leaning JA21 and the SGP, who are coordinating their positions, want different priorities but have also called for "movement" from the cabinet.

Both camps insist Jetten must choose: build a majority "over links" (with the left) or "over rechts" (with the right). But two centrist parties — ChristenUnie and 50PLUS — rejected that framing this week. "Come on, let's get something done," ChristenUnie leader Mirjam Bikker said after talks at the Catshuis. "I'm tired of the discussion about left or right. I look at whether plans are sound."

50PLUS leader Liane den Haan said her party favours a third option: "just continue as a minority cabinet" and find majorities issue by issue. "A good plan is a good plan — we'll support it," she told NOS.

The numbers don't add up yet

Heinen is working behind the scenes to see where opposition demands can financially fit. But the sums are daunting. A Leiden University analysis projects that European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra's draft EU tax plan could cost the Dutch treasury €8 billion annually by 2037 — shrinking the room for domestic spending.

Meanwhile, a coalition of employers, transport organisations, provinces, and municipalities is demanding 2% of GDP be invested in infrastructure annually — the same benchmark now used for defence. The Mobility Alliance, led by chairwoman Marga de Jager, warns that the maintenance backlog alone exceeds €34 billion through 2038, with another €20 billion needed for railways and €30 billion for stalled development projects.

"Backlog maintenance leads to emergency measures, higher repair costs, delays for passengers and freight transport, and risks to safety and accessibility," the alliance wrote to Jetten and Heinen.

What happens next

Jetten is pushing for multi-year commitments to protect long-term investments in housing, defence, and the economy, according to Trouw. But he acknowledged the timeline is tight: "We're doing everything we can" to finish before Prinsjesdag, though "ultimately, the Tweede Kamer has the final say."

Talks continue this weekend. If no deal is struck by next Friday, the cabinet could still send the budget to the Raad van State and negotiate changes during the autumn parliamentary debates. But that would mean months of uncertainty — and the risk that opposition parties reject individual ministry budgets, forcing emergency measures or new elections.

For anyone on a residence permit, that means: watch this space. Budget decisions directly affect IND staffing, municipal integration budgets, and whether promised reforms to the highly skilled migrant scheme or student visa rules actually get funded.