Dutch banks rake in billions, but ING warns growth isn't guaranteed — and ABN Amro faces US sanctions risk

If you live in the Netherlands and have a bank account with ING, Rabobank, or ABN Amro, you might have seen headlines about their billion-euro profits. But behind those numbers lie two warnings that matter for anyone on a residence permit: the Dutch economy itself may be hitting a ceiling, and one of the country's biggest banks could face serious trouble with the United States.

The profit debate: fair or foul?

In the first half of 2026, ING earned €3.5 billion, Rabobank €2.5 billion, and ABN Amro €1.5 billion. Over the past three and a half years, the three banks together made €50 billion in profit, according to NL Times. That has revived a familiar Dutch debate: are these profits socially justified?

Roland Mees, professor of business ethics at the University of Groningen, told RTL that while the sums look astronomical to most people, they are not out of line for large banks. Neeltje van Horen, professor of financial economics at the University of Amsterdam, said it is hard to define a cap — it depends on how each bank makes its money. The discussion flared up before: in 2023, then-Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag sent a letter to parliament (Tweede Kamer) noting that the fairness of high bank profits was being questioned across the EU.

Critics point to the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy, which in 2019 argued that society should not become too dependent on big banks. The advocacy group Positive Money has called for a system change that would reduce banks' power.

ING's sobering reality check

Just days after the profit announcements, ING's own economists released a report warning that the Netherlands' economic growth streak is far from guaranteed. As reported by NL Times, the bank says the country is running short of labour, space, infrastructure, and investment. Much of the recent growth has been driven by government spending that cushioned shocks — like energy discounts and fuel tax cuts — rather than strengthening long-term foundations.

ING points to a backlog of deferred maintenance: the Merwede bridge on the A27 had to close to trucks, and the Hardenberger bridge on the A28 needed emergency repairs. The bank also flags a tight labour market, an aging population, and lower immigration, making it "hard to see where the extra labour hours will come from."

For expats and internationals, this is a direct signal. If you are planning to work or study here, the economy that attracted you may not keep expanding at the same pace. Labour shortages mean some sectors will still welcome newcomers, but housing and infrastructure constraints are real bottlenecks.

ABN Amro's American problem

A separate risk hit ABN Amro in October. The US government announced sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, which will freeze ICC assets in the US and bar Americans from providing funds or services to the court. ABN Amro is the ICC's banker. DutchNews.nl reports that the bank's clearing division, which settles share trades and has a large US business, could face heavy US penalties — fines, criminal charges, or even being put on the sanctions list itself.

The sanctions take full effect on April 7, 2027, after a 180-day delay for diplomatic talks. The Dutch state is ABN Amro's largest shareholder. Prime Minister Rob Jetten called the sanctions "deeply regrettable" but stressed the importance of dialogue with Washington.

Legal experts say the law is unclear. Cedric Ryngaert, professor of international public law at Utrecht University, told RTL that the uncertainty creates a "chilling effect" because companies cannot tell if they are covered.

What does this mean for you?

If you have an account at one of these banks, your deposits are protected by the Dutch deposit guarantee scheme up to €100,000 per person per bank. But the broader picture matters: the profit debate reflects a tension between rewarding shareholders and serving society. ING's warning suggests that the Dutch economy — which you may have moved here to benefit from — faces structural limits. And ABN Amro's ICC exposure shows how geopolitical risks can hit even a bank that is partly state-owned.

No new government measures have been announced to address the profit debate. For now, the banks keep earning, but the risks are piling up.