Dutch Unemployment Steady at 4% as Workforce Shrinks: What It Means for Expats

The Dutch labour market is sending mixed signals. Unemployment has held at 4% for months, but the number of people in paid work has stopped growing. For expats and internationals living in the Netherlands, this shift — driven by an aging population and a rising share of non-working migrants — has real consequences for job hunting, career security, and the social safety net.

The numbers behind the headlines

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported on 15 October that 408,000 people were out of work in September, keeping the unemployment rate at 4% — the same level as a year earlier. The number of jobless has been rising slowly since early 2023, when it stood at 343,000. Over the past three months, unemployment has grown by an average of 5,000 people per month, mainly because fewer unemployed people are finding work rather than because more people are losing their jobs. Meanwhile, the number of people in paid employment has stagnated at 9.6 million, and the total workforce is no longer expanding.

Beyond the headline figures, a much larger group of 3.2 million people aged 15 to 75 are not counted as part of the workforce because they have not recently looked for work or cannot start immediately. Most are retired, ill, or have a disability. Combined with the 408,000 officially unemployed, more than 8.5 million people in the Netherlands are currently outside the labour force, according to CBS.

The benefits agency UWV recorded a 1.4% rise in unemployment benefits in August compared with July, and at the end of September was paying out 197,100 benefits. The UWV figures are not directly comparable with the CBS total (which counts everyone without paid work who is actively job-seeking), but the trend points in the same direction: more people are relying on the safety net.

Why the workforce is shrinking

CBS attributes the stagnation in employment mainly to two factors: an aging population — more people are retiring than are entering the labour market — and a growing number of non-working migrants. The latter group includes people who have moved to the Netherlands for family reasons or as asylum seekers and are not yet (or not at all) participating in the labour force. The result is that the pool of available workers is no longer growing naturally, even as the overall population increases.

What this means for expats

For internationals living in the Netherlands, the cooling labour market means that finding a new job may take longer than it did a few years ago, especially in sectors that are not experiencing acute shortages. The rise in unemployment is gradual, so the market is not crashing, but the days of ever-expanding opportunities are over for now. Expats on residence permits tied to employment should be particularly aware of the trend: if it becomes harder to find a new job quickly, the risk of falling out of permit requirements (such as the 30% ruling or the kennismigrant scheme) could increase.

At the same time, the aging population creates persistent demand in healthcare, education, and technology — fields where expats are often employed. The TomTom announcement on 15 October that it will cut 200 jobs (6% of its global workforce) as part of a restructuring is a reminder that even in stable sectors, companies can reorganise. TomTom said the layoffs are intended to make the company “more focused, faster, and more scalable,” and will cost €15 million in restructuring, but will save €21 million annually. The company employs about 3,300 people worldwide, with over a third based in Western Europe, many at its Amsterdam headquarters.

The bigger picture

With the workforce no longer growing and the number of people outside the labour force exceeding 8.5 million, the Dutch government faces pressure to raise labour participation — for example by raising the retirement age, improving childcare, or making it easier for migrants to work. For now, the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards, but the underlying dynamics are shifting. Expats should keep an eye on policy debates about the AOW retirement age, the kennismigrant scheme, and social security contributions, as these directly affect their financial and legal position in the Netherlands.

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Sources:

• NL Times: Number of Dutch workers no longer growing due to aging population; Unemployment stable
• DutchNews.nl: Unemployment remains at 4%, 408,000 out of work
• NL Times: TomTom plans to cut 200 jobs, roughly 6% of workforce