German Chancellor Merz’s historic collapse: what it means for internationals in the Netherlands

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is fighting for his political survival after his CDU party suffered devastating defeats in two state elections on 20 September 2026. For internationals living in the Netherlands, the crisis in Berlin is more than a distant headline – it carries real consequences for European policy on migration, housing, and the economy, all of which directly affect life here.

What happened?

In the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won around 38% of the vote, while Merz’s CDU failed to cross the 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament – a historic low BBC News. In Berlin, the CDU came second with roughly 20%, beaten by Die Linke (The Left) on nearly 26% BBC News. These results follow the AfD’s earlier victory in Saxony-Anhalt, where the CDU’s vote share was halved NOS.

Merz’s personal approval rating has sunk to 13% – the lowest ever recorded for a German chancellor since polling began BBC News. He has vowed to stay on, calling the elections “a disaster”, but internal party preparations for a mid‑term “chancellor swap” are reportedly under way BBC News.

Why does this matter for expats in the Netherlands?

Germany is the Netherlands’ largest trading partner and a key driver of EU policy. A weakened, internally focused German government has less capacity to push through reforms on issues that matter to internationals:

• Migration and residence permits: The AfD’s surge is built on anti-immigration rhetoric. If the CDU shifts right to win back voters, that could pressure the EU’s common asylum system – and make Dutch coalition talks on migration even harder. The current Dutch government, already struggling with its own asylum caps, may find less room for compromise at the European table.
• Housing and the economy: German economic uncertainty – a direct result of political instability – can slow investment and raise interest rates, which affects the Dutch housing market. Expats looking for a mortgage or a rental in the Netherlands may face tighter conditions.
• European decision‑making: With Merz in survival mode, the Netherlands loses a reliable ally in Brussels on issues like defence spending, climate policy, and labour mobility – all crucial for internationals working across borders.

What’s next?

Merz has only been chancellor for 16 months. The next federal election is not due until 2027, but if the CDU decides to replace him, the new chancellor would be chosen by the Bundestag. Possible successors include defence minister or a state premier from the CDU. Meanwhile, the AfD is now polling first nationally – a first for a far‑right party in post‑war Germany BBC News.

For internationals in the Netherlands, the takeaway is clear: watch Berlin. A Merz exit or an AfD breakthrough will reshape the European landscape on migration and economics – and that will eventually land in your mailbox, whether through a new Dutch asylum law or a rent increase.

This article is based on reporting from NOS and the BBC.