German far-right's surge: What Merz's crisis and the AfD's rise mean for expats in the Netherlands

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on a roll, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is staring down the barrel of defeats in two state elections on Sunday [September 20]. For internationals living in the Netherlands — a country that shares a border and a currency with Germany — the tremors from across the border are worth watching closely.

What's happening in Germany?

On September 6, the AfD won a landslide in Saxony-Anhalt, taking about 44% of the vote — more than double its result five years ago. Other major parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the party, leaving it unable to govern, but the symbolic victory is a clear warning sign [Source: Al Jazeera].

Now, two weeks later, voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern go to the polls. Polls suggest the CDU could lose power in Berlin and might even fall below the 5% threshold needed to enter state parliament in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern — a historic low. Chancellor Merz, who has been in office only 16 months, faces poor approval ratings and speculation about a mid-term chancellor swap, though potential challengers have so far hesitated to move [Source: BBC].

The AfD — whose some branches are classed as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence — campaigns on an anti-immigration, Russia-friendly, Germany-first platform. It has found its strongest support in the former communist east, where economic discontent and cultural anxieties run deep.

Why should expats in the Netherlands care?

Germany is the Netherlands' largest trading partner and the anchor of the European Union. A shift to the far-right in Berlin — even if the AfD remains locked out of power at the federal level — would reshape EU policies on migration, climate, and the single market. For someone on a residence permit in the Netherlands, that matters.

Immigration and asylum policy: The AfD wants a much tougher line on migration. If it gains enough influence to push the CDU to the right — a phenomenon already visible in Dutch coalition politics — the EU's common asylum system could become more restrictive. That would affect everything from family reunification rules to the number of refugees the Netherlands accepts.

Housing and labour: Germany's political instability can slow down cross-border investment and infrastructure projects. For internationals working in tech, logistics, or academia — sectors heavily connected to the German market — uncertainty means a less predictable job market. And with housing already tight in Dutch cities, any slowdown in German construction or economic growth could indirectly push more workers toward the Netherlands.

The Dutch far-right echo: The Netherlands has its own far-right parties — the PVV and Forum voor Democratie (FvD). Interestingly, a recent controversy in the Netherlands shows how far-right educational projects can also gain state funding on shaky grounds. A primary school backed by FvD, the Renaissance school in Almere, received €507,000 in government support based on flawed research. The survey did not tell prospective parents the school was party-aligned, and only 18 out of 258 respondents said they would send their child there [Source: DutchNews.nl]. This illustrates a broader pattern: populist parties on both sides of the border are learning to use institutional loopholes. For expat parents in the Netherlands, it's a reminder to check the political affiliations behind 'alternative' schools.

What's next?

If the CDU suffers heavy losses on Sunday, Merz's grip on the chancellery may slip. A mid-term swap would be unprecedented in modern Germany but not impossible. The AfD, meanwhile, will likely use any gains to argue it deserves a seat at the table — even if other parties continue to refuse cooperation.

For now, expats in the Netherlands should keep an eye on Berlin. What happens there doesn't stay there — it crosses borders.