The Hague Explained

Missouri court blocks Trump-backed map; Darline Graham wins South Carolina Senate nod

The Missouri Supreme Court has blocked a Trump-backed congressional map, while Darline Graham won the Republican Senate nomination in South Carolina. Both outcomes could affect the slim Republican majorities in Congress and, by extension, US policies on immigration and trade that impact expats.

Anneke Roos en

Internationals living in the Netherlands may not follow every twist of US election law, but two developments this week — one in Missouri, one in South Carolina — highlight how the battle for control of the US Congress is playing out in courts and at the ballot box. For expats, the outcomes matter because US policy on immigration, trade and NATO directly affects life in the Netherlands.

Missouri Supreme Court blocks Trump-backed congressional map

On Thursday, the Missouri Supreme Court unanimously blocked a congressional map backed by former President Donald Trump, restoring the state's previous district boundaries for the November midterms. The map, signed into law in September 2025, was designed to help Republicans win an extra seat in the US House of Representatives. But a grassroots backlash — nearly 300,000 Missouri residents signed a petition to force a referendum on the map — led to a legal challenge after Secretary of State Denny Hoskins rejected the petition as legally insufficient.

The court ruled that the referendum petition “was legal, sufficient, and timely, and the secretary incorrectly concluded otherwise.” The decision is a rare judicial rebuke to Trump, but it is unlikely to be the final word. Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, a Republican, said she would immediately appeal to the US Supreme Court. Complicating matters: ballots for November must be printed soon, and it is unclear whether a state can use different congressional districts for the general election than it did for its primaries (Al Jazeera).

For internationals, the practical takeaway is this: if the map stands, Republicans are likely to gain one seat in the House. With the current Republican majority razor-thin — just a handful of votes — every seat counts. A larger GOP majority could mean faster passage of legislation on immigration caps, visa fees, and trade policy that directly affects expats.

Darline Graham wins South Carolina Senate nomination

In South Carolina, Darline Graham — sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham — has secured the Republican nomination for the Senate seat her brother held for 23 years. Graham defeated Representative Ralph Norman in a run-off election on August 25, after neither candidate reached the 50% threshold in the August 11 special primary. Graham received about 33% of the vote in that first round, compared with 25% for Norman, and swept counties across central South Carolina and the Lowcountry region, including Charleston (Al Jazeera).

Trump endorsed Graham, a factor that likely helped her consolidate conservative support. She will now face a Democratic challenger in November in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998 (Al Jazeera).

For internationals, the Graham race is less about policy shifts — South Carolina is reliably Republican — and more about the broader narrative. Lindsey Graham was one of the most hawkish voices in Congress on military intervention and a close ally of Trump. His sister has signalled she will continue that line, which could mean continued pressure on European allies, including the Netherlands, to increase defence spending.

What it means for the November midterms

Both developments underscore how the 2026 midterms are being shaped by court rulings and special elections, not just the usual campaign dynamics. With Republicans holding slim majorities in both chambers, every seat and every district line matters. For expats, the bottom line is this: a Republican-controlled Congress is likely to push for tighter immigration rules, higher visa fees, and a more transactional relationship with Europe. A Democratic victory in any of these races could slow or block those efforts.

Practical advice: keep an eye on the Missouri appeal and the South Carolina general election. If you are a US citizen living abroad, make sure your absentee ballot is requested and returned on time — your vote could help decide the balance of power.

Sources

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