Morocco's election: PAM wins but faces coalition puzzle — a familiar story for Dutch politics watchers

If you follow Dutch politics, you know the drill: no single party wins a majority, coalition talks drag on, and the largest party gets the first shot at forming a government. That same scenario just played out in Morocco, where the monarchy-aligned Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) won the most seats in the September 23 parliamentary election — but fell well short of an outright majority.

For the many internationals in the Netherlands with Moroccan heritage or business ties, the outcome matters directly: the next government will steer Morocco’s preparations for the 2030 World Cup (co-hosted with Spain and Portugal), tackle a cost-of-living crisis, and decide how to engage with the large Moroccan diaspora in Europe. But even if you don't have a personal link, the election offers a fascinating case study in coalition politics under a constitutional monarchy — with a few twists that would feel familiar in The Hague.

The numbers: PAM first, RNI drops, PJD bounces back

According to final results released by the Ministry of Interior on September 26, PAM secured 97 of the 395 seats in the House of Representatives (the lower house). That’s up from 87 in 2021, but still 101 seats short of a majority. Source: Al Jazeera

The outgoing coalition partners took a beating: the liberal National Rally of Independents (RNI) fell from 102 seats to 66, and the Istiqlal Party dropped from 81 to 65. The big surprise was the Justice and Development Party (PJD), a moderate Islamist party that had been reduced to just 13 seats in 2021 — it quadrupled its tally to 54. Source: Al Jazeera

Turnout was a dismal 38.08%, down from 50.86% in 2021 and one of the lowest since King Mohammed VI ascended the throne in 1999. Analysts attribute the disengagement to widespread frustration over jobs, healthcare, education, and the rising cost of living — grievances that boiled over into Gen Z-led protests last year. Source: Al Jazeera

Coalition arithmetic: who will PAM turn to?

Under Article 47 of Morocco’s constitution, the king appoints the prime minister from the party that wins the most seats — so PAM leader Fouad Ali El Himma (a close friend of the monarch) is the likely formateur. But PAM has ruled out another partnership with the RNI, its former senior coalition partner, after the two traded accusations over failed policies. And a coalition with the resurgent PJD is all but impossible: PAM was founded in 2008 specifically as a counterweight to the Islamists, and the PJD has already said it will stay in opposition.

That leaves Istiqlal (65 seats) as the most plausible partner, along with a handful of smaller parties. Together, PAM and Istiqlal would have 162 seats — still 36 short of a majority — so additional allies would be needed. The arithmetic is reminiscent of Dutch coalition formation, where the largest party often needs three or four partners to reach 76 seats in the Tweede Kamer. The difference? In Morocco, the palace keeps control of key portfolios like defence and foreign affairs, regardless of who leads the government. Source: Al Jazeera

What this means for internationals in the Netherlands

For Dutch residents with Moroccan nationality, the election results could influence consular services, dual-citizenship policies, and the tone of diplomatic relations between Rabat and The Hague. Morocco’s next government will also decide on economic reforms that affect remittances and investment flows — important for the many Moroccan-Dutch entrepreneurs and families who maintain ties across the Mediterranean.

More broadly, the low turnout and protest vote are a reminder that political disengagement is not a uniquely Dutch problem. And the coalition puzzle facing PAM is one that anyone who has followed the marathon talks after the 2021 or 2023 Dutch elections will instantly recognise. The key difference: in the Netherlands, the king plays a ceremonial role; in Morocco, the monarch is the ultimate decision-maker.

As coalition talks begin, expect weeks of negotiations — and a government that will have to balance royal priorities with the everyday demands of a frustrated electorate. The 2030 World Cup preparations, backed by billions in investment, will be the big test.