Netanyahu Under Fire: Egypt and UAE Warnings, Arab Party Bans, and Settler Violence Dominate Israeli Election Campaign

With less than a month until Israel’s October 27 elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a perfect storm of political crises — from allegations that he ignored advance warnings of the October 7, 2023 attack, to a controversial move to bar the country’s main Arab political parties from the ballot, and a UN appearance where he dismissed settler violence as the work of “juvenile delinquents.”

For internationals following Israeli politics, the stakes are high: the outcome of this election will shape the country’s security posture, its relationship with key allies like Egypt and the UAE, and the political rights of the 1.25 million Palestinian citizens of Israel who may be left without representation in the Knesset.

Warnings from Cairo and Abu Dhabi

The most damaging blow to Netanyahu’s campaign came this week, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Egypt’s intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, phoned the prime minister just days before the October 7, 2023 attack to warn of an imminent Hamas assault. The report follows earlier claims that UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) had also warned Netanyahu in the week before the attack that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was planning something big Source: Al Jazeera.

Netanyahu has emphatically denied receiving any such warnings, and has sued over the claims. He has instead tried to shift blame onto Ronen Bar, the former head of Israel’s internal security service, who announced on Monday that he would sue the prime minister for defamation Source: Al Jazeera.

The controversy over the warnings is central to the election because Netanyahu has refused to establish an independent inquiry into his government’s failures before October 7. His main rival, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, has made such an inquiry a key plank of his electoral platform Source: Al Jazeera.

Arab Parties Barred from Ballot

In a separate but equally explosive development, Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted on September 24 to disqualify both main Arab electoral lists — Ra’am (the United Arab List) and the Joint List — from the upcoming election. The committee also voted to bar individual candidates Ofer Cassif (Hadash) and Sami Abu Shehadeh (Balad) Source: Al Jazeera.

The bans are not yet final: they require Supreme Court approval, and the legal center Adalah has said it will challenge the decisions. But if upheld, the move would leave Palestinian citizens of Israel — who make up about 20% of the population — without any major Knesset representation. Ra’am called its exclusion “political and unacceptable,” while the Joint List accused Netanyahu and far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir of trying to discourage Arab voters “because they fear our ability to bring down the government of genocide and racism” Source: Al Jazeera.

Settler Violence Dismissed as ‘Juvenile Delinquents’

Addressing the UN General Assembly on September 24, Netanyahu downplayed rising settler violence in the occupied West Bank, blaming it on “juvenile delinquents.” He also boasted that Israel had “pummelled” Hezbollah and broken its spirit Source: Al Jazeera. The remarks drew sharp criticism from human rights groups, who note that settler attacks on Palestinian villages have increased sharply since the October 7 attack.

Boasting About Bombing Qatar

In a separate interview with i24NEWS, Netanyahu boasted about ordering the bombing of Qatar in September 2025, which killed five Hamas members and a Qatari security officer. He also defended the transfer of Qatari funds to Gaza, saying they were recommended by Israeli security agencies for humanitarian purposes Source: Al Jazeera. Qatar, which has hosted Hamas’s political office since 2012 at the request of the US, condemned the strike as a “blatant violation of international law.”

What This Means for the Election

The combination of the warning scandal, the Arab party bans, and the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon means that the October 27 election will be a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership — and on the legacy of October 7. With polls showing a tight race, the Supreme Court’s decision on the Arab party bans could be decisive. If the bans are upheld, Arab voters may boycott the election, potentially handing Netanyahu a victory. If they are overturned, the Arab parties could once again play a kingmaker role in coalition negotiations.

For internationals in Israel, the outcome will determine the country’s direction on security, democracy, and regional diplomacy for years to come.