Prinsjesdag 2026: A Minority Cabinet's First Test—and a VVD in Trouble

The third Tuesday of September brought the Dutch tradition of Prinsjesdag, but this year's edition felt less like a celebration and more like a high-stakes gamble. For the first time since the 2023 election, a minority cabinet of D66, VVD, and CDA presented its budget to parliament, and it did so against a backdrop of internal bickering, opposition skepticism, and a visible crisis of confidence within one of its own coalition partners.

For internationals living in the Netherlands, the day's events are more than just pageantry. The budget outlines what you'll pay in taxes, what happens to your benefits, and how much your rent might rise. But the real story is about who actually holds the power in Dutch politics right now—and whether the government can function at all.

A Budget Born of Chaos

The road to Prinsjesdag was far from smooth. The coalition parties—D66, VVD, and CDA—spent the final days of August locked in intense negotiations, missing their own deadline before finally reaching a deal on August 31, just two weeks before the big day. According to NOS, the process was so fraught that it began to resemble a mini-formatie, the typically lengthy process of forming a new government. The real question, as parliamentary reporter Nynke de Zoeten noted, was not just about policy but about who actually controls the cabinet: Prime Minister Rob Jetten (D66) or Finance Minister Eelco Heinen (VVD). "There's a serious substantive crisis," de Zoeten said, "and maybe also a crisis about who actually holds the power in the Netherlands."

The deal itself—which includes 1.5 billion euros for purchasing power and billions for defense—was presented to the public as a series of "handreikingen" (overtures) to the opposition. But as DutchNews.nl notes, the day's events are steeped in tradition, from the king's speech to the presentation of the budget briefcase. Yet the substance was anything but traditional. The cabinet's proposals, particularly on box 3 (the tax on savings and investments) and social security, have already drawn sharp criticism.

Opposition Unimpressed

Because the coalition lacks a majority in both the Tweede Kamer (lower house) and Eerste Kamer (upper house), the cabinet needs support from opposition parties to pass its budget. That support is far from guaranteed. The two largest opposition parties, Pro and the PVV, have both rejected the proposed cuts to social security. Pro leader Jesse Klaver has been blunt: he will not accept cuts to unemployment and sickness benefits. As NOS reports, opposition parties argue the cabinet is "not making choices" and is simply avoiding the hard decisions needed to balance the books.

The cabinet insists that broad support is essential for a minority government, but the opposition is not buying it. The question now is whether the government can cobble together enough votes in the coming weeks, or whether the budget will be voted down—a scenario that could trigger a government crisis.

VVD in Freefall

While the budget is the immediate concern, the biggest political story may be the collapse of confidence in VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz. According to a poll by EenVandaag published on September 16, less than half of VVD voters now have confidence in Yeşilgöz, down from 81 percent shortly after the election. The NL Times reports that Yeşilgöz ranks dead last among all party leaders, with many voters saying she has moved the VVD too far to the left and that her stance is unclear. Others feel she is too rigid, hampering cooperation with the opposition.

Her parliamentary faction leader, Ruben Brekelmans, fares slightly better at 71 percent confidence, but he still ranks second-to-last among faction leaders, ahead of only BBB's Henk Vermeer. The poll also shows that confidence in the other coalition leaders has slipped—though far less dramatically. D66's Rob Jetten still enjoys 82 percent support, down from near-unanimous levels last year, with critics saying he fails to project a strong image as cabinet leader. CDA's Henri Bontenbal saw his support drop to 84 percent, with some voters finding him too invisible.

What This Means for You

For expats and internationals, the practical implications are significant. The budget negotiations directly affect your tax bill, especially if you have savings or investments in the Netherlands (box 3). The proposed changes to social security could impact your rights if you lose your job or become unable to work. And the political instability means that nothing is certain until the budget is actually passed—which could take weeks of parliamentary debate.

If you're following the news, here's what to watch: the budget debate in the Tweede Kamer, which will likely stretch into October. The government will need to make concessions to secure a majority. If it fails, we could be looking at early elections—a prospect that would only add to the uncertainty.

The Bottom Line

The minority cabinet is walking a tightrope. It must balance the demands of its own coalition partners, the skepticism of the opposition, and the declining popularity of its largest party. For now, the government stands, but the cracks are visible. As the Netherlands settles into the new political year, one thing is clear: this is not a government that can afford to stumble.

For more on Prinsjesdag rituals, check out DutchNews.nl's guide. And for a deep dive into the coalition's internal struggles, listen to the NOS podcast.