Taiwan Strait tensions spike before Trump-Xi summit: What it means for expats in the Netherlands

As Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to meet Donald Trump in Washington next week, Taiwan has staged live-fire missile and drone drills – a pointed reminder that the future of the self-governed island is one of the most explosive items on the summit agenda. For expats living in the Netherlands, the stakes go well beyond geopolitical headlines.

The latest flare-up

On September 19, Taiwan’s military conducted exercises involving missiles and attack drones, timed to coincide with Xi's departure for the US. The drills were a show of force – and a signal to Beijing that Taipei is ready to defend itself (Al Jazeera, Sept. 19). Only days earlier, the top US diplomat in Taipei, Raymond Greene, warned that any conflict across the Taiwan Strait would have “a bigger impact on the global economy than the Second World War” (Al Jazeera, Sept. 9).

“The upcoming US-China summit is an opportunity to further advance a relationship of strategic stability,” Greene said at a defence forum in Taipei, but he made clear that the US is also reinforcing its military presence and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific to maintain a “favourable regional balance of power.”

Taiwan courts Europe

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim made a rare visit to Europe to attend the Ventotene Conference for Freedom and Democracy in Italy, accompanied by Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung (Al Jazeera, Sept. 11). Such a senior-level trip is unusual because of the risk of Chinese retaliation against the host country. European Parliament Vice President Pina Picierno revealed that Hsiao’s participation “was kept secret until her arrival to protect her participation.” In a Facebook post, Picierno added: “Freedom of debate is not negotiable with autocracies.”

For the European Union – and by extension the Netherlands – the visit underscores a growing dilemma: how to maintain trade and diplomatic ties with China while also supporting democratic values and unofficial relations with Taiwan. The Netherlands, which like most EU countries follows a one-China policy, has nonetheless deepened economic links with Taiwan, especially in semiconductors and high-tech equipment.

What does this mean for expats in the Netherlands?

If you hold a Dutch residence permit, work in tech, logistics, or academia, or have family in Asia, the Taiwan Strait crisis is more than a distant foreign-policy story.

Economic shockwaves – Greene’s warning is not hyperbole. The Taiwan Strait is a chokepoint for global shipping and a hub for semiconductor manufacturing. Taiwan produces over 60% of the world’s advanced chips and over 90% of the most cutting-edge ones. A conflict – even a prolonged blockade – would grind global supply chains to a halt. That would hit the Netherlands hard: Rotterdam, Europe’s largest port, depends on stable sea lanes, and the Dutch economy is deeply intertwined with Asian markets. For expats working in export-oriented sectors (logistics, engineering, finance), job security and income could be directly affected.

Travel and visa implications – The Dutch government may issue travel warnings or even restrict airspace if tensions escalate. If you have family in Taiwan or China, you could face sudden travel disruptions. More broadly, a major geopolitical crisis often leads to tighter visa and immigration policies as governments prioritize national security. For internationals on temporary residence permits, that could mean longer processing times or stricter scrutiny.

University and research ties – Dutch universities have numerous partnerships with Chinese institutions, and many international students and researchers are from China or Taiwan. Political pressure could lead to the suspension of exchange programmes or research collaborations, affecting students and academics on both sides.

Political fallout in The Hague – The Dutch government has traditionally tried to balance economic interests in China with solidarity with democracies like Taiwan. If the crisis escalates, the coalition in The Hague (currently a patchwork of parties) may face pressure to take a clearer stance – which could spill over into domestic debates on China policy. Internationals living here should watch for new sanctions or export controls affecting the tech sector.

The bottom line

For now, the immediate flashpoint is the Trump-Xi summit, expected within the next week. The outcome will determine whether the US escalates or de-escalates its military cooperation with Taiwan. For expats in the Netherlands, the best preparation is to stay informed, check travel advisories, and understand how your job or study programme might be exposed to disruptions in Asia. The polder model may be about consensus, but the Taiwan Strait crisis is anything but predictable.